Maxwell Ratings provide early look at potential playoff matchups
It’s early to be talking playoffs with only 12 of 1,281 region games complete, but Loren Maxwell of the Maxwell Ratings churns out playoff projections each week on AJC Varsity, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s new high school sports product.
His detailed playoff projections can be found here. His rankings are also on AJC Varsity.
The GHSA changes the region playoff pairings each year, so each new season brings a different landscape to the brackets.
In Class 6A this season, No. 2 Buford and No. 3 Douglas County could play in the quarterfinals if they win their regions. In Class 5A, No. 1 Hughes could face No. 2 Gainesville in the quarterfinals if both win their regions, although Maxwell projects No. 6 Roswell to win Gainesville’s region. In 4A, No. 4 Benedictine and No. 5 Cartersville are projected to meet in the second round.
Classes 3A, 2A, A Division I and 3A-A Private use power ratings to seed, so their matchups are harder to project because they are not tied to region finish as they are in 6A, 5A, 4A and A Division II.
So Maxwell analyzes how each team's won-lost record will be computed in the GHSA’s Post Season Rankings and predicts that Jefferson (3A), Rockmart (2A), Rabun County (A Division I) and Savannah Christian (3A-A private) will come away with the No. 1 seeds.
Class A Division I defending champion Toombs County is projected to be seeded No. 12 despite Maxwell considering Toombs to be the classification’s best team.
Maxwell expects Savannah Christian to win Toombs’ region, which would limit how high Toombs can be seeded. even though Savannah Christian plays in 3A-A Private. Toombs could also be penalized in the GHSA model if it fails to replicate its impressive 2024 victory at Class 4A power Rome next month.
Here are Maxwell’s projections of the first-round matchups.
Class 6A
R1 #3 Valdosta at R8 #2 Mill Creek
R7 #4 Peachtree Ridge at R4 #1 Grayson
R5 #3 North Paulding at R3 #2 Harrison
R6 #4 North Forsyth at R2 #1 Carrollton
R8 #3 Collins Hill at R1 #2 Camden County
R4 #4 Archer at R7 #1 Norcross
R3 #3 Hillgrove at R5 #2 Walton
R2 #4 East Coweta at R6 #1 West Forsyth
R2 #3 Westlake at R6 #2 Lambert
R5 #4 Marietta at R3 #1 McEachern
R4 #3 South Gwinnett at R7 #2 North Gwinnett
R8 #4 Dacula at R1 #1 Colquitt County
R6 #3 North Atlanta at R2 #2 Douglas County
R3 #4 Campbell at R5 #1 North Cobb
R7 #3 Brookwood at R4 #2 Newton
R1 #4 Lowndes at R8 #1 Buford
Class 5A
R1 #3 Effingham County at R8 #2 Jackson County
R7 #4 Lanier at R4 #1 Woodward Academy
R5 #3 South Paulding at R3 #2 Newnan
R6 #4 Creekview at R2 #1 Lee County
R8 #3 Habersham Central at R1 #2 Glynn Academy
R4 #4 Shiloh at R7 #1 Milton
R3 #3 Dutchtown at R5 #2 East Paulding
R2 #4 Coffee at R6 #1 Sequoyah
R2 #3 Houston County at R6 #2 River Ridge
R5 #4 Villa Rica at R3 #1 Hughes
R4 #3 Dunwoody at R7 #2 Roswell
R8 #4 Winder-Barrow at R1 #1 Brunswick
R6 #3 Sprayberry at R2 #2 Thomas County Central
R3 #4 Lovejoy at R5 #1 Rome
R7 #3 Gainesville at R4 #2 Decatur
R1 #4 Evans at R8 #1 Clarke Central
Class 4A
R1 #3 Warner Robins at R8 #2 Eastside
R7 #4 Cass at R4 #1 Creekside
R5 #3 Tucker at R3 #2 Starr's Mill
R6 #4 Westminster at R2 #1 Hampton
R8 #3 Madison County at R1 #2 Benedictine
R4 #4 Pace Academy at R7 #1 Cartersville
R3 #3 Jonesboro at R5 #2 St. Pius
R2 #4 Locust Grove at R6 #1 Blessed Trinity
R2 #3 Jones County at R6 #2 Kell
R5 #4 Southwest DeKalb at R3 #1 Central (Carrollton)
R4 #3 Maynard Jackson at R7 #2 Cedartown
R8 #4 Flowery Branch at R1 #1 Ware County
R6 #3 Cambridge at R2 #2 Stockbridge
R3 #4 Harris County at R5 #1 Marist
R7 #3 Hiram at R4 #2 Mays
R1 #4 Perry at R8 #1 North Oconee
Class 3A
#32 Bainbridge at #1 Jefferson
#17 Westover at #16 Gilmer
#24 Upson-Lee at #9 Heritage (Ringgold)
#25 Douglass at #8 Oconee County
#28 Lumpkin County at #5 Peach County
#21 West Laurens at #12 Jenkins
#20 Whitewater at #13 Cairo
#29 Mary Persons at #4 Calhoun
#30 Northwest Whitfield at #3 Stephenson
#19 Monroe Area at #14 Cedar Grove
#22 Southeast Bulloch at #11 Sandy Creek
#27 Howard at #6 Baldwin
#26 Pickens at #7 North Hall
#23 Long County at #10 Harlem
#18 Cherokee Bluff at #15 Troup
#31 Luella at #2 LaGrange
Class 2A
#32 Butler at #1 Rockmart
#17 Stephens County at #16 Westside (Macon)
#24 Sonoraville at #9 Sumter County
#25 Hart County at #8 Callaway
#28 Cook at #5 Pierce County
#21 Jackson at #12 Thomson
#20 South Atlanta at #13 Hapeville Charter
#29 Union County at #4 Morgan County
#30 Crisp County at #3 Carver (Atlanta)
#19 East Jackson at #14 Ringgold
#22 Columbus at #11 Appling County
#27 Rutland at #6 Burke County
#26 Shaw at #7 Columbia
#23 Laney at #10 Miller Grove
#18 Spencer at #15 North Murray
#31 Redan at #2 Carver (Columbus)
Class A Division I
#32 Banks County at #1 Rabun County
#17 Jasper County at #16 Social Circle
#24 Dade County at #9 Dublin
#25 Washington County at #8 Putnam County
#28 McNair at #5 Fannin County
#21 Temple at #12 Toombs County
#20 Bleckley County at #13 Dodge County
#29 Vidalia at #4 Northeast
#30 Towers at #3 Lamar County
#19 Jeff Davis at #14 Swainsboro
#22 Elbert County at #11 Heard County
#27 Southwest at #6 Bremen
#26 Bacon County at #7 Fitzgerald
#23 ACE Charter at #10 Gordon Lee
#18 Worth County at #15 Commerce
#31 Coosa at #2 Thomasville
Class A Division II
R1 #3 Seminole County at R8 #2 Greene County
R7 #4 Mount Zion (Carroll) at R4 #1 Wilcox County
R5 #3 Hancock Central at R3 #2 Jenkins County
R6 #4 Marion County at R2 #1 Brooks County
R8 #3 Washington-Wilkes at R1 #2 Mitchell County
R4 #4 Wheeler County at R7 #1 Bowdon
R3 #3 McIntosh County Academy at R5 #2 Wilkinson County
R2 #4 Charlton County at R6 #1 Schley County
R2 #3 Irwin County at R6 #2 Macon County
R5 #4 Glascock County at R3 #1 Metter
R4 #3 Hawkinsville at R7 #2 Manchester
R8 #4 Warren County at R1 #1 Early County
R6 #3 Taylor County at R2 #2 Clinch County
R3 #4 Emanuel County Institute at R5 #1 Johnson County
R7 #3 Trion at R4 #2 Telfair County
R1 #4 Pelham at R8 #1 Lincoln County
Class 3A-A Private
#1 Savannah Christian - bye
#17 Mount Paran Christian at #16 Mount Vernon
#24 Walker at #9 Greater Atlanta Christian
#8 Athens Academy - bye
#5 Hebron Christian - bye
#21 Providence Christian at #12 Lovett
#20 Savannah Country Day at #13 Darlington
#4 Calvary Day - bye
#3 Fellowship Christian - bye
#19 Christian Heritage at #14 King's Ridge Christian
#22 Mount Pisgah Christian at #11 Wesleyan
#27 63.88 at #6 North Cobb Christian
#7 Whitefield Academy - bye
#23 Trinity Christian at #10 Aquinas
#18 Landmark Christian at #15 Holy Innocents’
#2 Prince Avenue Christian - bye